Wednesday, February 29, 2012

How to make better predictions

"Those who are comfortable trusting their feelings make the most accurate predictions"

That is the finding from a study done by Columbia Business School.   Their study was to determine if deliberate rational reasoning or trusting your gut feeling was better.   The finding.....those people that a higher trust in their feelings greatly outpredicted those that second guess their feelings.

Here is how they think it works...   

When you relying on your feelings for determining  what is right or wrong, you are actually using both your conscious and unconscious mind  to access knowledge and information.   Your gut feeling is actually the result of your cumulatinve knowledge. 

When it doesn't work to trust your feelings...

You must have knowledge on the subject first.   If you know nearly nothing about which your prediction or decision is based, then it is just a guess.   The more kowledge you have the better trusting your feelings works.  Makes sense, right?

I'm thinking this is much the same way intuition and those aha moments work.   It's accessing your conscious and subconscious knowledge.   The best ideas come when you a real depth of knowledge on the subject.

"You've trusted your head and where has that got you?   Maybe its time to trust your feelings"

And just to prove to you how good I am at this, I am going to make a bold prediction based on my gut feeling?   Tonight I'm going to sit down with a cold beer and watch the hockey game.    My team is going to kick some serious butt and go on to make the playoffs!   Nah, just kidding...those bums couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag!   (and I have a very strong feeling about that)

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